Private Briefing January 2026
No. 154 | Year XIII
The January Private Briefing traditionally opens the year with a comprehensive macroeconomic overview of global developments translated into a regional context, with fragmentation as the central framework reshaping the logic of planning, management and growth in the new reality.
In addition, this edition analyses three current support instruments that directly align with this framework: the export promotion programme implemented by the Serbian Development Agency, the Ministry of Economy programme supporting investments in export capacity, and the grant scheme of the Provincial Secretariat for businesses in AP Vojvodina.
SDA: Export Promotion Support Programme
// The Export Promotion Support Programme implemented by the Serbian Development Agency in 2025 is aimed at the systematic strengthening of export capacities among domestic manufacturers through improved competitiveness, business modernisation and strategic positioning in foreign markets. The programme focuses on increasing export revenues in selected manufacturing sectors and primarily targets companies that already have a certain level of export activity, but require additional institutional support to further expand and professionalise their presence in target markets. Eligible applicants are manufacturing MSMEs registered no later than 1 January 2022, with a focus on final products or components intended for end consumers.
// The programme sets relatively demanding entry criteria in terms of technical, human and financial capacities, including mandatory quality management system certifications, a minimum of ten employees, demonstrated sales and export capacity in 2024, and an adequate level of fixed assets. Grant support is intended to finance activities with a direct and measurable impact on export capabilities and long term positioning in target foreign markets. Eligible activities include export market strategy development, export and digital marketing, product adaptation, packaging and communication materials aligned with market requirements, acquisition of required certifications and standards, product listing in international sales channels, capacity building of staff engaged in foreign market operations, independent participation in international trade fairs, as well as upgrades of production capacities aimed at increasing quality, efficiency and export oriented output. The total programme budget amounts to 150 million dinars, with grant support awarded for costs covering at least two different intervention measures. The maximum grant amount per beneficiary is capped at 10 million dinars. Individual grant amounts range from 500.000 to 5 million dinars depending on the type of activity, while grant intensity reaches up to 60% of eligible costs for micro and small enterprises and up to 40% or 50% for medium sized enterprises.
// For companies currently seeking a tangible boost to their export capacities, the programme represents a strong opportunity for the structured development of export strategies, ranging from market analysis and positioning, through offer adaptation and the preparation of sales and marketing materials, to the organisation of market entry activities aimed at generating concrete contacts and sales channels. To fully leverage the available support, the highest value is achieved in projects where market and marketing development is pursued in parallel with the financial framework of exports, from cost assessment and implementation dynamics to the selection of appropriate instruments for financing the export phase. It is precisely in creating this functional and efficient link between market strategy and financial feasibility that Glenfield stands ready to provide strategic and operational support.
Macroeconomic Outlook: Global Developments, Trends and Expectations
// The past year marked a gradual evolution from the concept of resilience as the dominant development objective towards a framework that more precisely captures the nature of 2026, fragmentation. While resilience remains the most appropriate response to volatility, fragmentation describes a world in which trends are shaped across multiple centres of decision making, interests and regulatory regimes that often do not align in either scope or objectives. In this context, it is not coincidental that within the Global Risks framework nearly three quarters of experts expect a multipolar or fragmented global order over the next decade, while only around 6% anticipate a return to a coherent and unified global framework. However distant or abstract this may appear, for businesses, particularly small and medium sized enterprises, this shift is far from theoretical. It implies that opportunities emerge selectively, under more conditions and checks, and along very specific roadmaps, increasingly grounded in measurable, data driven indicators and segment profiling.
The macroeconomic picture appears more stable than two or three years ago, yet this stability rests at a lower level than the historical average. Global growth projections for 2026 range between 2,6% and 3,3%, compared to a long term average of around 3,7% for the period from 2000 to 2019. Growth in advanced economies is expected to reach approximately 1,7% to 1,8%, while developing economies remain closer to 4%. This is sufficient to sustain growth, but not to close productivity and income gaps at a faster pace. Inflation in the main scenarios continues to ease towards 3% to 3,5%, confirming the broader trend, yet still leaving room for renewed pressures driven by energy markets, logistics or geopolitical shocks. In such circumstances, capital is expected to remain more expensive than in the decade prior to 2022, while business predictability increasingly requires a higher level of discipline and data based management capacity.
Fragmentation is most clearly visible in trade and supply chains. Drawing on the experience of the past five years of diverse disruptions, a growing number of companies, including large global systems, are adopting a logic that no longer views value chains solely through cost and efficiency, but also through resilience, security, resource availability and continuity of supply. Research indicates that more than 90% of supply chain executives are localising their supplier base and procurement models. In practice, this translates into more regional flows, a wider set of alternative suppliers, higher inventory levels, additional logistics routes and stricter reliability criteria. For domestic and global MSMEs, which are inherently agile and adaptable, this creates tangible opportunities as nearby markets and regional
partnerships expand. At the same time, entry thresholds rise and require further upgrades, as participation in value chains increasingly depends on internal capacities, standards, quality control, risk management and the ability to meet deadlines, volumes and quality requirements. As a result, resilience in 2026 will be measured and reflected in business performance in very practical terms, including liquidity and working capital management, inventory planning, customer and supplier risk assessment and readiness to switch rapidly to alternatives when standard options fail. In a lower growth environment, stronger results can be expected from those that identify their niches and possess sufficient organisational and financial capacity to recognise and capture opportunities, on a data driven basis, while they remain available.
// In this context, knowledge becomes more important than ever, understood as a firm’s ability to identify where and how value is created, where margins erode and how to prevent this, which units function as profit centres and which absorb costs, and how processes can be stabilised. Digitalisation and automation remain strong trends, yet years of increasingly rapid and broad adoption have made the distinction between technology uptake and its actual business impact more visible. Artificial intelligence continues to attract significant global investment, with the cumulative impact of AI adoption by 2030 estimated at 19,9 trillion dollars, and the potential to contribute around 3,5% of global GDP by that year. Leading investors anticipate total corporate AI investment of approximately 8 trillion dollars by 2030. At the same time, an AI productivity paradox persists, whereby task level productivity gains of between 14% and 55% are observed, while around 95% of AI based pilot projects fail to scale sustainably. The message for businesses, including MSMEs, is clear. AI can accelerate operations and reduce the cost of error, but only where firms possess the processes, data, people and governance required to turn tools into reliable systems rather than ad hoc experiments.
Sustainable development and ESG remain an integral part of the global macroeconomic framework, even as the formal pace of reporting and regulatory pressure varies across markets. In Europe, the implementation of an investment package exceeding 2 trillion euros continues through NextGenerationEU and the long term EU budget. Globally, annual issuance of green, social and sustainability linked bonds surpassed the threshold of 1 trillion dollars during 2025 and continues to grow. At the same time, the climate finance gap remains substantial, with estimates suggesting that developing economies will require around 1,3 trillion dollars in annual climate financing by the mid 2030s. In practice, these dynamics indicate that ESG is increasingly viewed less as a reporting exercise and more as a set of concrete requirements and criteria transmitted through banks, buyers, multinational supply chains and risk frameworks. This is reflected in the growing number of programmes that embed ESG elements into practical and operational criteria. At the same time, this further reinforces the focus on internal capacity building, standards, energy and resource efficiency and the ability to credibly demonstrate these elements to potential partners and the wider business environment.
Beyond strictly economic indicators, the socio economic dimension of the macro framework remains highly relevant, as it directly affects stability, labour markets and long term growth prospects. Global unemployment is projected to remain around 4,9% in 2026, which appears relatively solid. However, international analyses consistently point to job quality as a central challenge, including a high share of informal and insecure employment across many economies. At the same time, inequality indicators remain stark.
The top 10% of income earners receive more income than the remaining 90% combined, while the bottom 50% account for less than 10% of global income. In such an environment, inclusion is increasingly translated into a question of economic functionality, shaping financing models, the design of financial products and targeted efforts to remove barriers embedded in standard risk assessment approaches. Meaningful strategies are therefore built not on general messaging, but on segmented, data driven approaches.
// If these elements are consolidated into realistic expectations, 2026 emerges as a year in which strong capacity building becomes central, both as a means of capturing business opportunities and of protecting against adverse conditions, while reliance shifts towards a broad base of fragmented market participants. This further underlines the fact that regional growth models primarily based on heavily subsidised foreign direct investment do not deliver sustainable outcomes, while domestic MSMEs and growing mid sized companies increasingly stand out as drivers of productivity, exports and employment. In an expectedly fragmented global economy, their success will depend above all on internal resources, capabilities and knowledge to manage critical processes and finances, introduce standards and adapt to new market rules. This will allow them to seize opportunities as they arise, without relying on broader cycles to pull them forward. At the same time, national macroeconomic frameworks and policy directions need to be shaped in ways that support these development drivers, through instruments based on measurable indicators, segmentation and the removal of demonstrable barriers, from women and young people to rural communities and broader social inclusion. An analysis of the local macroeconomic context will follow in the next edition of the Private Briefing, while targeted support programmes for MSMEs and farmers will continue to be examined in the editions ahead.
Ministry of Economy: 400 Million Dinars in Grants for Investments in Export Capacity
// The Ministry of Economy, in cooperation with the Development Fund of the Republic of Serbia, has published a public call under the Programme for Strengthening Capacities for Business Internationalisation. The total available budget amounts to 400 million dinars, and the call remains open until the funds are exhausted, and no later than 1 June 2026. The programme is positioned as an instrument for companies that already export or have contracted business with foreign buyers and seek to accelerate productivity growth, delivery stability and the alignment of production with market requirements through investment. Accordingly, eligible applicants include entrepreneurs, micro, small and medium sized enterprises and cooperatives registered no later than the end of 2021, provided that no net loss has been reported in official financial statements for the previous two years. Financial stability is further demonstrated through a minimum of ten employees in 2024 and a positive trend in revenues and employment over the period from 2021 to 2024. The export criterion is met either through evidence that the company has already achieved a relevant level of export sales in the previous year, or through export contracts concluded in the current year, with mandatory confirmation that part of those contracts has already been realised prior to submission. In practical terms, this implies export revenues exceeding 5.800.000 dinars in 2024, or export contracts concluded in 2025 with a value above 5.800.000 dinars, of which at least 3 million dinars must have been realised at the time of application.
Eligible investments include works related to the construction, extension, reconstruction, adaptation, rehabilitation or investment maintenance of production facilities and storage space for own products, raw materials and production inputs, as well as the purchase of new machinery and equipment, including tools. Eligible uses also include the financing of permanent working capital, limited to up to 20% of the total investment value, through the purchase of raw materials, production inputs and packaging, as well as the procurement and installation of equipment aimed at improving energy efficiency and environmental standards within own production.
The grant intensity amounts to up to 30% of the value of the investment, while the remaining share is financed from the company’s own resources. Grant amounts range from 1 to 10 million dinars, with the condition that grants exceeding 6 million dinars are available only to entrepreneurs, micro and small enterprises that
employed at least 35 staff as of 31 October 2025, or to medium sized enterprises that employed at least 50 staff on that date. Where the application relates to a project within an activity that has not previously been registered as the applicant’s primary activity, the maximum grant amount is limited to 2,5 million dinars.
// The programme provides investment support with a clear focus on the manufacturing sector and on capacities that directly enhance competitiveness in foreign markets. The programme’s preference structure and the set of limitations applied to more ambitious investments clearly signal that priority is given to companies that have already developed broader operational capacity and can demonstrate that the project is supported by a sufficiently strong team and organisational structure. In this sense, higher levels of support are not conceived as a universal option, but rather as an instrument for companies undertaking larger scale investments, supported by a broader employee base and a greater ability to absorb growth. At the same time, the financing structure implies that the company bears the main share of the investment and must plan contingencies for scenarios in which the approved grant amount is lower than expected. It is therefore important to plan investments in a way that genuinely increases capacity, quality or energy efficiency in production and can be translated rapidly into export contracts and more stable revenues. For potential beneficiaries, the most rational approach is to treat the programme as part of a broader internationalisation strategy rather than as an isolated subsidy, by linking the investment to concrete export flows, capacity planning and expected contracts, while realistically assessing own contributions and implementation timelines. Where application preparation is based on a clear investment logic, demonstrable export ambition and coherent plans, grant support becomes a direct multiplier of growth and a stronger position in international markets.
Provincial Secretariat: Grants For Fixed Assets And Working Capital
// The public call launched by the Provincial Secretariat for Economy and Tourism for the subsidisation of costs related to the purchase of fixed assets or working capital in 2026 belongs to a group of instruments that directly target the most sensitive constraint faced by micro and small businesses, the ability to implement an investment without excessive pressure on liquidity. The programme is intended for micro and small enterprises and entrepreneurs, including lump sum taxpayers, with registered offices or registered business units in the territory of AP Vojvodina. Eligibility conditions require applicants to operate profitably and to employ at least one person registered for mandatory social insurance, which indicates that the targeted beneficiaries are stable micro and small enterprises and entrepreneurs for whom the subsidy serves as a leverage for investment rather than as a form of remediation.
The call covers two categories of eligible costs, with funds awarded on a reimbursement basis, for investments implemented from 1 February 2025 until the date of closing of the call. The first category relates to fixed assets, including the purchase of new machinery and equipment for professional use, as well as motor vehicles in categories M1, N1 and N2, provided that they are used exclusively for own business purposes, and renewable energy systems with installed capacity of up to 50 kW. The programme also allows for the purchase of used fixed assets not older than five years, subject to mandatory valuation by a certified court expert, which is particularly
relevant for enterprises that invest rationally in equipment but must ensure verifiable valuation and origin of the investment. The second category relates to working capital, specifically the purchase of raw materials, basic production inputs and commercial packaging, provided that such expenditure directly contributes to the creation of new material value. At the same time, investments in construction works, furniture, agricultural machinery and hospitality equipment are excluded from the programme, thereby maintaining a focus on manufacturing and craft capacities, that is, on investments that most directly affect productivity.
// The financial framework of the call is defined by a budget of 219,5 million dinars, with subsidies calculated at up to 80 percent of the invoiced value of the purchase, excluding VAT and ancillary costs, within a range per application from 700.000 to 2 million dinars. Under real business conditions, this reimbursement rate can be decisive in situations where a company already has an investment plan but postpones implementation in order to preserve working capital, or where equipment procurement must be aligned with seasonal cycles, order dynamics or customer deadlines. Overall, the call is most beneficial for micro and small enterprises with a clearly defined investment purpose and orderly documentation, and with sufficient capacity to bridge the period between payment and reimbursement. For micro and small enterprises planning equipment modernisation or strengthening of their raw material base, this call does not represent only short term cost coverage, but a genuine opportunity to accelerate the investment cycle with significantly reduced pressure on own liquidity. For such entities, strict formal requirements, documentation scope and limited deadlines are less a bureaucratic obstacle and more a filter that rewards those who plan development strategically and treat the grant as a lever for accelerated growth rather than as an incidental subsidy.
| KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS | Jan - 26 | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Annual inflation | 2.70% |
| 2 | Reference interest rate | 5.75% |
| 3 | Unemployment rate | 8.20% |
| 4 | Average net salary - RSD | 111,987 |
| 5 | Average pension - RSD | 56,834 |
| 6 | Exchange rate RSD/EUR | |
| On the last day of the month | 117.2820 | |
| Average exchange rate for the month | 117.3739 | |
| 7 | Exchange rate RSD/USD | |
| On the last day of the month | 99.9165 | |
| Average exchange rate for the month | 100.1874 | |
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