Private Briefing February 2026
No. 155 | Year XIII
The February Private Briefing shifts the focus from global aggregates to local macroeconomic indicators, looking at a rebalancing of the growth model in which SMEs are emerging as a prominent force. This year is shaping up as a period of strengthening internal capacities and sharpening market positioning, while also creating room for those who have been building steadily in recent years to move from planning to execution of investment priorities.
Alongside this, we analyse three current support instruments that directly encourage a higher level of business performance and quality, a loan facility implemented by the Ministry of Tourism through the DF, investment grants for SME projects under the Interreg programme, and the new IPARD III cycle of support for agriculture and rural development.
Ministry of Tourism: Loans to Enhance the Quality of the Tourism Offer
// The active loan support programme to enhance the quality of the tourism offer, implemented by the Ministry of Tourism and Youth through the Development Fund, aims to improve quality and increase the intensity of use of tourism assets through construction, refurbishment and reconstruction of accommodation capacities, restaurants, sports, recreational and entertainment facilities, the restoration of rural buildings and their conversion into tourism capacities, as well as the design and production of souvenirs. The programme is positioned as a development instrument for investment in tourism capacities and infrastructure, rather than as a short term liquidity measure, therefore, alongside direct investment in commercial facilities, it also covers the construction of tourism infrastructure and superstructure and the alignment of existing capacities with tourism and hospitality regulations, which positions it as a tool for raising the overall offer of a destination in formal, qualitative and regulatory terms.
// Eligible applicants are companies and entrepreneurs registered for tourism and hospitality, as well as registered family agricultural holdings, which allows both conventional models and rural tourism to be developed through the same instrument. The share of loan in the total project value is capped at 50%, with financing of both fixed assets and permanent working capital permitted, up to 20% of the approved loan, which leaves room, alongside the investment itself, to cover initial costs of bringing the capacity into operation. Loans are provided through the Development Fund, at an interest rate of 1% per year with, indexed in euros, with a repayment period of up to 72 months after a grace period of 12 months, or 24 months for greenfield projects in tourism infrastructure and superstructure, with quarterly instalments. The minimum loan amount is 500.000 dinars for agricultural holdings and entrepreneurs, or 2 million dinars for companies, and collateral may take the form of a mortgage, a promissory note, or a bank guarantee.
// For tourism investors, this call can serve as a strong tool for analysing their own business model and measuring the sustainability of the planned investment with precision, because the combination of favourable interest, a longer tenor, and strict criteria effectively requires analytical project preparation, rather than ad hoc spending. This is reflected in the required documentation, which alongside formal aspects such as location ownership and construction documents, also includes a business plan prepared under the DF model, while the qualification and ranking of applications is based on economic justification, the applicant’s financial position and creditworthiness, and alignment with the Tourism Development Strategy, technical regulations, the expected contribution to quality, the level of development of the municipality, and integration into the ambient setting. From the applicant’s perspective, the biggest challenge is usually not formal eligibility itself, but structuring the business plan, the financial and investment plan, and revenue and cost projections so they align both with the Ministry’s logic and the Development Fund’s procedures. In connecting the investment concept with the call’s requirements, defining a realistic dynamic for works and drawdowns, and translating the strategy for developing the tourism offer into numbers that can withstand credit committee criteria, Glenfield can provide meaningful support, from initial diagnostics and eligibility checks to preparing the business plan and monitoring implementation.
Macroeconomic Overview: Local Developments, Trends and Expectations
// Last month’s Private Briefing used resilience and fragmentation as a lens for reading today’s global economy. This issue shifts the lens from global aggregates to Serbia’s local macroeconomic signals. Global growth in 2025 came in at 3,2%, a mild slowdown from 3,3% in 2024, and a picture of stability rather than momentum. In that setting, Serbia’s real GDP growth was 2,3%, down from 3,9% a year earlier, pointing to softer domestic activity. The outcome was uneven, some segments expanded, some held flat, some slowed. By sector, the strongest growth was recorded in transport, 4,7%, mining, 4,4%, and retail trade, 4,2%, while the sharpest declines were in construction, 8,4%, tourism measured by overnight stays, 3,3%, and energy, 2,0%. By size, smaller businesses, on average, absorbed the current wave far better than the next size class.
These 2025 results also highlight structural weaknesses in the growth model. A slowdown to 2,3%, combined with a steep contraction in construction and energy, points to how exposed the economy remains to investment cycles and capital intensive projects, while sectors with moderate growth did not have the scale to offset the negative swing. This reinforces a familiar conclusion, dependence on a limited number of large projects and external investment impulses does not create a stable and diversified development base. At the same time, SMEs continue to operate with limited access to long term finance, a higher cost of capital and persistent regulatory complexity, all of which constrain investment activity and productivity. Support for technological modernisation, digitalisation and innovation driven business models remains an important part of competitiveness, but without parallel progress in access to finance, stronger domestic supply chains and an active push towards import substitution, the impact of such initiatives stays partial. In a slower growth environment, development policy has to focus on widening the base of domestic production, diversifying financing sources and strengthening the economy’s capacity to generate stable growth sustained from within.
// Among other indicators, year-end inflation in 2025 stood at 2,7%, down markedly from 4,3% at the end of 2024, confirming a continued easing of inflationary pressures through the year. The policy rate, as the central instrument of inflation control, remained unchanged throughout the year at 5,75%, supporting a gradual disinflation path. Unemployment moved only marginally, from 8,1% at the start of the year to 8,2% at year end, suggesting broadly stable labour market conditions. Employment is expected to keep rising in sectors with higher job complexity, which can support further growth in average wages, while increases in the minimum wage continue to add pressure on operating costs. The average net wage was 113.320 dinars, or roughly 970 euros, pointing to continued nominal wage growth compared with the previous year. Serbia’s estimated GDP per capita for 2025 is around 13.600 US dollars, above the Western Balkans average, 11.300 US dollars, but still below the Balkans average, 16.000 US dollars, and far below the EU average, 45.000 US dollars.
| KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS | Jan - 25 | Feb - 25 | Mar - 25 | Apr - 25 | May - 25 | Jun - 25 | Jul - 25 | Aug - 25 | Sep - 25 | Oct - 25 | Nov - 25 | Dec - 25 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Annual inflation | 4,30% | 4,60% | 4,50% | 4,40% | 4,00% | 3,80% | 4,60% | 4,90% | 4,70% | 2,90% | 2,80% | 2,80% |
| 2 | Reference interest rate | 5,75% | 5,75% | 5,75% | 5,75% | 5,75% | 5,75% | 5,75% | 5,75% | 5,75% | 5,75% | 5,75% | 5,75% |
| 3 | Unemployment rate | 8,10% | 8,10% | 8,10% | 8,60% | 8,60% | 9,10% | 9,10% | 8,50% | 8,50% | 8,50% | 8,20% | 8,20% |
| 4 | Average net salary - RSD | 100.738 | 100.738 | 107.476 | 103.519 | 108.013 | 109.272 | 107.705 | 107.075 | 109.071 | 105.590 | 109.147 | 110.670 |
| 5 | Average pension - RSD | 50.683 | 50.687 | 50.702 | 50.686 | 50.688 | 50.684 | 50.675 | 50.662 | 50.657 | 50.675 | 50.686 | 50.658 |
| 6 | Exchange rate RSD/EUR | ||||||||||||
| On the last day of the month | 117,0149 | 117,1203 | 117,1844 | 117,2106 | 117,1924 | 117,2105 | 117,1740 | 117,1734 | 117,1749 | 117,2004 | 117,2395 | 117,3875 | |
| Average exchange rate for the month | 116,9730 | 117,1174 | 117,1336 | 117,1741 | 117,2029 | 117,2275 | 117,2066 | 117,1754 | 117,1724 | 117,1784 | 117,1929 | 117,2507 | |
| 7 | Exchange rate RSD/USD | ||||||||||||
| On the last day of the month | 112,4386 | 112,3859 | 112,7858 | 108,1778 | 103,0353 | 103,2874 | 99,8841 | 102,4512 | 100,4328 | 99,9236 | 101,3394 | 101,3009 | |
| Average exchange rate for the month | 111,6927 | 111,5616 | 112,4665 | 108,7431 | 104,6381 | 103,8338 | 101,8005 | 100,1938 | 100,8080 | 99,9064 | 100,5951 | 101,3814 | |
// During 2025 the dinar remained stable against the euro, with an average exchange rate of around 117,20 dinars per euro based on National Bank of Serbia monthly averages, while movements against the US dollar were more pronounced due to global currency shifts. The current account deficit, which in 2024 was roughly 2,5 to 2,7 times higher than in 2023, rising from around 2,4% to 6,3% of GDP, stabilised in 2025 and edged down to 4,3% of GDP in the first nine months. Total goods trade increased in 2025, with exports up 12,9% and imports up 11,7% in US dollar terms, signalling solid export activity alongside continued strong import demand. Import coverage by exports rose to 79,0%, while the goods deficit was around 8,8 billion euros. Wage and employment growth in higher complexity sectors, particularly in IT, construction and trade, partly eases migration pressure, but a durable solution still depends on stronger domestic competitiveness through investment in education and technological development. At the same time, minimum wage growth can further improve living standards and reduce inequality.
If global trends of fragmentation, selective capital and growth built on internal capacities are translated into the domestic context, Serbia’s 2025 follows the same logic. Slower growth at 2,3%, combined with a pronounced decline in construction and energy, highlights the risks of leaning on investment cycles and capital-intensive projects. At the same time, growth in transport, mining and trade suggests a shift towards more market oriented and operationally efficient segments,
yet these still lack the scale to generate a stronger economy wide impulse on their own. With slower global dynamics and more expensive capital, the economy is entering a phase where resilience will depend increasingly on working capital management, diversification of suppliers and customers, and the ability to meet tightening standards imposed by banks, partners and value chains, including ESG criteria that are becoming an operational requirement rather than a declarative one.
// For SMEs this implies that opportunities will exist, but they will be more conditional and more competitive, requiring a higher level of organisational maturity, process standardisation and financial discipline. Support programmes and development instruments in the period ahead will therefore carry greater weight to the extent that they respond to these needs, while their effectiveness will also depend on companies’ readiness to identify investment priorities early, prepare sustainable business and financial plans and quantify expected effects clearly. In that environment, 2026 is unlikely to be a year of rapid growth, rather it looks like a year of consolidation, strengthening internal capacities and positioning for the next investment cycle. The SME segment is in a somewhat stronger position, supported by our business sentiment research, which points to very positive expectations. With timely adjustments and capacity building, progress and the capture of the current open space will depend on the ability to understand a fragmented market setting and use it through disciplined, data driven management, grounded in preparation and carefully built positions.
Interreg: Direct Investment Support for Joint SME Projects
// The Ministry of Economy, in cooperation with the Development Fund of the Republic of Serbia, has published a public call under the Programme for Strengthening Capacities for Business Internationalisation. The total available budget amounts to 400 million dinars, and the call remains open until the funds are exhausted, and no later than 1 June 2026. The programme is positioned as an instrument for companies that already export or have contracted business with foreign buyers and seek to accelerate productivity growth, delivery stability and the alignment of production with market requirements through investment. Accordingly, eligible applicants include entrepreneurs, micro, small and medium sized enterprises and cooperatives registered no later than the end of 2021, provided that no net loss has been reported in official financial statements for the previous two years. Financial stability is further demonstrated through a minimum of ten employees in 2024 and a positive trend in revenues and employment over the period from 2021 to 2024. The export criterion is met either through evidence that the company has already achieved a relevant level of export sales in the previous year, or through export contracts concluded in the current year, with mandatory confirmation that part of those contracts has already been realised prior to submission. In practical terms, this implies export revenues exceeding 5.800.000 dinars in 2024, or export contracts concluded in 2025 with a value above 5.800.000 dinars, of which at least 3 million dinars must have been realised at the time of application.
Eligible investments include works related to the construction, extension, reconstruction, adaptation, rehabilitation or investment maintenance of production facilities and storage space for own products, raw materials and production inputs, as well as the purchase of new machinery and equipment, including tools. Eligible uses also include the financing of permanent working capital, limited to up to 20% of the total investment value, through the purchase of raw materials, production inputs and packaging, as well as the procurement and installation of equipment aimed at improving energy efficiency and environmental standards within own production.
The grant intensity amounts to up to 30% of the value of the investment, while the remaining share is financed from the company’s own resources. Grant amounts range from 1 to 10 million dinars, with the condition that grants exceeding 6 million dinars are available only to entrepreneurs, micro and small enterprises that
employed at least 35 staff as of 31 October 2025, or to medium sized enterprises that employed at least 50 staff on that date. Where the application relates to a project within an activity that has not previously been registered as the applicant’s primary activity, the maximum grant amount is limited to 2,5 million dinars.
// The programme provides investment support with a clear focus on the manufacturing sector and on capacities that directly enhance competitiveness in foreign markets. The programme’s preference structure and the set of limitations applied to more ambitious investments clearly signal that priority is given to companies that have already developed broader operational capacity and can demonstrate that the project is supported by a sufficiently strong team and organisational structure. In this sense, higher levels of support are not conceived as a universal option, but rather as an instrument for companies undertaking larger scale investments, supported by a broader employee base and a greater ability to absorb growth. At the same time, the financing structure implies that the company bears the main share of the investment and must plan contingencies for scenarios in which the approved grant amount is lower than expected. It is therefore important to plan investments in a way that genuinely increases capacity, quality or energy efficiency in production and can be translated rapidly into export contracts and more stable revenues. For potential beneficiaries, the most rational approach is to treat the programme as part of a broader internationalisation strategy rather than as an isolated subsidy, by linking the investment to concrete export flows, capacity planning and expected contracts, while realistically assessing own contributions and implementation timelines. Where application preparation is based on a clear investment logic, demonstrable export ambition and coherent plans, grant support becomes a direct multiplier of growth and a stronger position in international markets.
IPARD III: A new cycle, new measures, a new level of expectations
// The second call for direct support to SMEs under the Interreg VI-A IPA Programme Bulgaria Serbia represents a substantial step in cross border cooperation, shifting from indirect support and soft activities towards investment projects with clearly measurable effects on productivity and growth. The call was implemented under Priority 1, a competitive border region, with the specific objective of strengthening sustainable growth and SME competitiveness, and supporting the creation of new jobs. It targets micro, small and medium sized enterprises in Bulgaria and Serbia that want to deliver joint cross border investment projects focused on productivity gains, modernisation, digitalisation and the expansion of market opportunities, aligning the programme with the EU’s dual transition agenda, green and digital, for the 2021 to 2027 period.
Eligible applicants are SMEs registered in, or effectively operating within the eligible cross border areas of Bulgaria, Vidin, Vratsa, Montana, Kyustendil, Pernik and Sofia District, and Serbia, Nisava, Zajecar, Pirot, Toplica, Jablanica, Pcinja and Bor District, with formal registration in those districts not required as long as the enterprise can demonstrate that activities are genuinely carried out there. Sector coverage is broad, ranging from manufacturing, including food processing, textiles, metal processing, machinery and electronics, to waste management and circular activities, information and communication technologies, professional, scientific and technical activities, tourism and hospitality, transport and warehousing, health and social care, arts, sport and recreation, excluding activities linked to gambling and betting. The central rule is that each project must be submitted through a partnership of at least one SME from Bulgaria and one from Serbia, with a joint project defined from the outset and credible cross border effects, rather than two parallel investments presented under a single title.
The financial framework signals that the call is aimed at enterprises ready for a more demanding investment cycle. The total budget is around 4 million euros, while each project can be awarded a grant between 100.000 and 400.000 euros, with each partner within a project able to plan for between 50.000 and 200.000 euros. Projects may last from 12 to 24 months, which in practice means that beneficiaries must plan a complete investment cycle, from procurement and installation of equipment and technology, through testing and commissioning, to early commercial outcomes, within a constrained timeframe. The financing structure follows the standard Interreg logic,
85% is provided as an EU grant and 15% is co-financing, for Bulgarian enterprises largely from the national budget, and for Serbian enterprises from their own funds, with an option for an advance payment of 10% of the total approved grant. Projects must be clearly investment oriented, with at least 60% of the total budget dedicated to investments in modernising production processes, introducing new technologies and equipment, digitalisation and ICT solutions, improving quality and competitiveness, or expanding capacity and integration into value added chains.
// For companies considering this call, the value lies in the ability to modernise equipment and processes with substantial non repayable support, introduce new technologies and digital solutions, and at the same time build a stable partnership with a Bulgarian SME for a joint approach to the EU market. An additional benefit is exposure to a full EU project framework, from investment planning to results monitoring, which can strengthen the company’s credibility with future financiers and partners and ease entry into subsequent programmes. For SMEs with sound operations and the ambition to make a step change in productivity, capacity and internationalisation, this call can enable one major step rather than a series of smaller ones, while Glenfield can support the articulation of that step into an investment project that makes business sense and fits the Interreg logic clearly.
| KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS | Feb - 26 | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Annual inflation | 2,40% |
| 2 | Reference interest rate | 5,75% |
| 3 | Unemployment rate | 8,90% |
| 4 | Average net salary - RSD | 124.089 |
| 5 | Average pension - RSD | 56.843 |
| 6 | Exchange rate RSD/EUR | |
| On the last day of the month | 117,4188 | |
| Average exchange rate for the month | 117,3526 | |
| 7 | Exchange rate RSD/USD | |
| On the last day of the month | 98,4561 | |
| Average exchange rate for the month | 100,0539 | |
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